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RES Regional Series: EU #3 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team NextUploss 1:1
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:1
One Moveloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team NextUp

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
so bad · 12 games
33%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
7jesu · 11 games
27%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
7jesu · 8 games
38%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Miyaoo · 8 games
25%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mirage · 7 games
57%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Mirage · 7 games
0%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
jesv · 6 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Miyaoo · 6 games
33%

One Move

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SSS · 12 games
25%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
queezy · 12 games
33%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
SSS · 12 games
33%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Rein · 9 games
33%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
xn丶e · 9 games
56%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SSS · 9 games
22%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
xn丶e · 9 games
56%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
SSS · 9 games
22%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
378 picks · 640 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
316 picks · 364 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
314 picks · 350 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
310 picks · 443 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
301 picks · 549 bans
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
289 picks · 183 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
288 picks · 178 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
282 picks · 376 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 41%
Hero pool strength50% One Move
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total54% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed42:43
Team NextUp 47%One Move 53%
The model gave 53% on One Move — the game was taken by Team NextUp in 51:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey King7jesu
52% · 50 games41% · 89 games
TerrorbladeWoE
Terrorblade
Beastmaster
Beastmasterzvёzd
52% · 70 games52% · 48 games
SlardarSSS
Slardar
Batrider
BatriderMirage
46% · 114 games49% · 50 games
ZeusEthereal
Zeus
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorVaniLLl
53% · 11 games58% · 58 games
Elder TitanRein
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction correct15:45
Team NextUp 48%One Move 52%
The model gave 52% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 42:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knight7jesu
52% · 54 games54% · 110 games
Monkey KingWoE
Monkey King
Puck
PuckMirage
46% · 88 games55% · 47 games
Legion CommanderSSS
Legion Commander
Pangolier
Pangolierzvёzd
50% · 161 game53% · 153 games
Keeper of the LightEthereal
Keeper of the Light
Rubick
RubickVaniLLl
41% · 183 games51% · 176 games
EnchantressRein
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 54%
Accuracy by game1 of 2