RES Regional Series: EU #1 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team NextUploss 1:1series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Rest Farmersloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team NextUp
Batrideroften banned
VaniLLl · 11 games
Morphlingoften banned
7jesu · 11 games
Razoroften banned
Miyaoo · 7 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 7 games
Marsoften banned
Miyaoo · 6 games
Crystal Maiden
jesv · 5 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mirage · 5 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 5 games
Rest Farmers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
468 picks · 756 bans
Mars
437 picks · 702 bans
Techies
433 picks · 347 bans
Tiny
427 picks · 561 bans
Batrider
424 picks · 903 bans
Lion
414 picks · 357 bans
Crystal Maiden
405 picks · 181 bans
Rubick
396 picks · 194 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 62%
Hero pool strength53% Rest Farmers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Rest Farmers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:43
Team NextUp 36%Rest Farmers 64%
The model gave 64% on Rest Farmers — the game was taken by Rest Farmers in 32:14.
Game 2prediction missed45:22
Team NextUp 36%Rest Farmers 64%
The model gave 64% on Rest Farmers — the game was taken by Team NextUp in 53:39.
Model check result
Model favoriteRest Farmers · 64%
Accuracy by game1 of 2