BTS Pro Series Season 10. ЮВА · BO3
result vs predictionTOTeam Orcawin 2:0
series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 2:0
T1loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Orca
No games played over 6 months.
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
538 picks · 366 bans
Queen of Pain
471 picks · 575 bans
Mars
423 picks · 613 bans
Weaver
423 picks · 693 bans
Kunkka
349 picks · 545 bans
Spirit Breaker
340 picks · 572 bans
Snapfire
318 picks · 159 bans
Wraith King
279 picks · 368 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 58%
Hero pool strength50% Team Orca
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total73% T1
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:42
Team Orca 27%T1 73%
The model gave 73% on T1 — the game was taken by T1 in 41:53.
Game 2prediction correct22:42
Team Orca 27%T1 73%
The model gave 73% on T1 — the game was taken by T1 in 56:47.
Model check result
Model favoriteT1 · 73%
Series resultTeam Orca 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2