DreamLeague Division 2 Season 2 · BO3
result vs predictionTPTeam Publicloss 1:2
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:2
4Pirateswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Public
Abaddonoften banned
Shad · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Puppey · 2 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Adzantick · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Adzantick · 2 games
Hoodwink
Jeezy · 2 games
Jakiro
Jeezy · 2 games
Bane
Puppey · 1 game
Broodmother
mangekyou · 1 game
4Pirates
Pangolieroften banned
мистер мораль · 33 games
Batrideroften banned
ariel · 31 game
Shadow Shamansignature
ariel · 31 game
Tusk
PERDAN4IK · 29 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Otaker · 28 games
Timbersawoften banned
мистер мораль · 24 games
Naga Sirensignature
PERDAN4IK · 23 games
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 22 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
689 picks · 332 bans
Disruptor
568 picks · 605 bans
Hoodwink
468 picks · 247 bans
Mars
391 picks · 667 bans
Puck
391 picks · 1128 bans
Tusk
386 picks · 247 bans
Dragon Knight
359 picks · 362 bans
Warlock
338 picks · 152 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 48%
Hero pool strength51% Team Public
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:45
Team Public 47%4Pirates 53%
The model gave 53% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 1:10:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaShad
Troll Warlordzvёzd
TimbersawAdzantick
Outworld DestroyerNattyNarwhal
Doommangekyou
Slardarмистер мораль
Skywrath MageJeezy
Batriderariel
ClockwerkPuppey
DazzlePERDAN4IK
Game 2prediction missed35:12
Team Public 45%4Pirates 55%
The model gave 55% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by Team Public in 42:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeaverShad
Gyrocopterzvёzd
Timbersawmangekyou
Primal Beastмистер мораль
Monkey KingAdzantick
Ember SpiritNattyNarwhal
TuskPuppey
Skywrath Mageariel
Shadow DemonJeezy
DazzlePERDAN4IK
Game 3prediction correct24:38
Team Public 46%4Pirates 54%
The model gave 54% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 43:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinShad
Ursazvёzd
Dragon KnightAdzantick
Nature's ProphetNattyNarwhal
Enigmamangekyou
Tidehunterмистер мораль
RingmasterJeezy
Tuskariel
BatriderPuppey
DisruptorPERDAN4IK
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 59%
Series result4Pirates 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3