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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Publicwin 2:0
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Kalmychataloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Public

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Adzantick · 6 games
33%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Jeezy · 5 games
40%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
mangekyou · 5 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Puppey · 4 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Adzantick · 4 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Shad · 3 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Puppey · 3 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Jeezy · 3 games
33%

Kalmychata

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 20 games
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 18 games
61%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Ethereal · 16 games
63%
Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 16 games
69%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 15 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
67%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
raregods · 14 games
86%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
706 picks · 344 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
591 picks · 621 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
489 picks · 254 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
407 picks · 1152 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
400 picks · 681 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
398 picks · 255 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
386 picks · 392 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
345 picks · 394 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 59%
Hero pool strength60% Kalmychata
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:26
Team Public 24%Kalmychata 76%
The model gave 76% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Team Public in 49:00.
Game 2prediction missed53:29
Team Public 24%Kalmychata 76%
The model gave 76% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Team Public in 1:02:15.
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 76%
Series resultTeam Public 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2