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EPL Championship Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Publicwin 2:1
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Spirit Academyloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Public

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Adzantick · 13 games
38%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
mrls · 12 games
33%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
mrls · 10 games
60%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Jeezy · 8 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
mangekyou · 8 games
50%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
mangekyou · 7 games
43%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Adzantick · 7 games
71%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
xn丶e · 7 games
57%

Team Spirit Academy

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Aidar · 12 games
17%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
Aidar · 12 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
rubikon155 · 9 games
56%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
SunshineRR · 9 games
44%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
SunshineRR · 8 games
25%
Techies
Techies
Aidar · 8 games
50%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
rubikon155 · 7 games
29%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SunshineRR · 7 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
566 picks · 701 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
510 picks · 349 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
486 picks · 664 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
450 picks · 545 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
419 picks · 145 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
406 picks · 191 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
379 picks · 520 bans
49%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
374 picks · 516 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 41%
Hero pool strength57% Team Public
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Team Public
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Team Public 76%Team Spirit Academy 24%
The model gave 76% on Team Public — the game was taken by Team Spirit Academy.
Game 2prediction correct
Team Public 76%Team Spirit Academy 24%
The model gave 76% on Team Public — the game was taken by Team Public.
Game 3prediction correct
Team Public 76%Team Spirit Academy 24%
The model gave 76% on Team Public — the game was taken by Team Public.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Public · 76%
Series resultTeam Public 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3