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EPL Championship Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Publicloss 1:2
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Zero Tenacitywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Public

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Adzantick · 15 games
47%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
mrls · 14 games
43%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
mrls · 10 games
60%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Jeezy · 9 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Adzantick · 8 games
75%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
mrls · 8 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
mangekyou · 8 games
50%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Shad · 8 games
63%

Zero Tenacity

Disruptor
Disruptor
Se · 42 games
60%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 40 games
55%
Warlock
Warlock
Se · 36 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Kami · 31 game
58%
Bristleback
Bristleback
Nefrit · 30 games
57%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Nefrit · 30 games
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Kami · 29 games
41%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 28 games
61%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
545 picks · 887 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
520 picks · 392 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
477 picks · 645 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
469 picks · 599 bans
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
401 picks · 843 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
367 picks · 590 bans
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
351 picks · 572 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
349 picks · 492 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 64%
Hero pool strength51% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:19
Team Public 45%Zero Tenacity 55%
The model gave 55% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Team Public in 32:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzYuragi
57% · 74 games49% · 204 games
Dragon KnightKami
Dragon Knight
Beastmaster
Beastmastererase
46% · 338 games49% · 172 games
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
Centaur Warrunner
Phoenix
PhoenixAntares
49% · 210 games49% · 185 games
Ember SpiritWorick
Ember Spirit
Mirana
Miranamrls
45% · 43 games51% · 87 games
ChenMoOz
Chen
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsayuw
58% · 95 games44% · 112 games
HoodwinkdEsire
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct13:38
Team Public 43%Zero Tenacity 57%
The model gave 57% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 31:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterYuragi
44% · 258 games51% · 162 games
LifestealerKami
Lifestealer
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fienderase
47% · 171 game44% · 362 games
PuckWorick
Puck
Mars
MarsAntares
53% · 291 game46% · 67 games
BrewmasterNefrit
Brewmaster
Muerta
Muertamrls
63% · 208 games49% · 450 games
TuskdEsire
Tusk
Clockwerk
Clockwerksayuw
43% · 162 games65% · 49 games
Treant ProtectorMoOz
Treant Protector
Game 3prediction correct34:31
Team Public 41%Zero Tenacity 59%
The model gave 59% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 55:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterYuragi
41% · 111 games52% · 217 games
Shadow FiendKami
Shadow Fiend
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knighterase
49% · 153 games52% · 264 games
Sand KingWorick
Sand King
Phoenix
PhoenixAntares
56% · 59 gameslittle data
LargoNefrit
Largo
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkmrls
43% · 97 games61% · 41 game
GrimstrokedEsire
Grimstroke
Tusk
Tusksayuw
43% · 156 games56% · 54 games
Treant ProtectorMoOz
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 59%
Series resultZero Tenacity 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3