The International 2026. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Refuserwin 2:0series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Game Masterloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Refuser
Phoenixoften banned
Poloson · 6 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Paparazi · 6 games
Axeoften banned
Yang · 5 games
Windranger
Monet · 5 games
Muertaoften banned
Pyw · 4 games
Tiny
Monet · 4 games
Dark Seeroften banned
zeal · 3 games
Puckoften banned
Paparazi · 3 games
Game Master
Snapfiresignature
Moon · 8 games
Kezsignature
flyfly · 6 games
Largosignature
TK · 6 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Moon · 6 games
Lion
Pyw · 5 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Monet · 4 games
Marsoften banned
JT- · 4 games
Timbersawoften banned
JT- · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
636 picks · 435 bans
Rubick
565 picks · 314 bans
Phoenix
483 picks · 585 bans
Tiny
455 picks · 390 bans
Pangolier
438 picks · 654 bans
Ember Spirit
351 picks · 529 bans
Puck
349 picks · 1029 bans
Tusk
344 picks · 299 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 64%
Hero pool strength60% Game Master
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total51% Team Refuser
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed43:15
Team Refuser 49%Game Master 51%
The model gave 51% on Game Master — the game was taken by Team Refuser in 43:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow RangerMonet
TimbersawJT-
DoomYang
Storm SpiritMoon
PangolierPaparazi
Kezflyfly
RubickBoBoKa
SilencerTK
ClockwerkPoloson
LionPyw
Game 2prediction missed33:14
Team Refuser 47%Game Master 53%
The model gave 53% on Game Master — the game was taken by Team Refuser in 52:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow RangerMonet
Muertaflyfly
DawnbreakerYang
Storm SpiritMoon
PangolierPaparazi
BristlebackJT-
PhoenixPoloson
Shadow DemonPyw
RubickBoBoKa
LargoTK
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Refuser · 51%
Series resultTeam Refuser 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2