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ESL Challenger China · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Refuserloss 0:2
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Yakult Brotherswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Refuser

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Paparazi · 3 games
33%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
zeal · 2 games
50%
Muerta
Muerta
Pyw · 2 games
50%
Razor
Razoroften banned
zeal · 2 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Dy · 2 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristleback
zeal · 1 game
0%
Clinkz
Clinkzoften banned
poyoyo · 1 game
0%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Dy · 1 game
0%

Yakult Brothers

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 29 games
52%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Emo · 26 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Poloson · 24 games
71%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
flyfly · 20 games
40%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
天命 · 20 games
30%
Mars
Marsoften banned
zeal · 19 games
37%
Bane
Bane
BoBoKa · 18 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
BoBoKa · 17 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
580 picks · 924 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
543 picks · 412 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
494 picks · 662 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
491 picks · 636 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
424 picks · 916 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
386 picks · 635 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
378 picks · 521 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
365 picks · 226 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 30%
Hero pool strength50% Yakult Brothers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Yakult Brothers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:29
Team Refuser 43%Yakult Brothers 57%
The model gave 57% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 41:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
Kezpoyoyo
51% · 20 games39% · 49 games
Weaverflyfly
Weaver
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritPaparazi
48% · 156 games51% · 108 games
LeshracMoon
Leshrac
Razor
Razorzeal
55% · 45 games42% · 83 games
UnderlordYang
Underlord
Lion
LionPyw
62% · 44 games34% · 20 games
Largo天命
Largo
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorDy
66% · 36 games49% · 41 game
Nyx AssassinBoBoKa
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction correct7:29
Team Refuser 42%Yakult Brothers 58%
The model gave 58% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 35:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunapoyoyo
47% · 71 game50% · 200 games
Muertaflyfly
Muerta
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightPaparazi
50% · 474 games51% · 221 game
Queen of PainMoon
Queen of Pain
Timbersaw
Timbersawzeal
55% · 225 games47% · 177 games
TidehunterYang
Tidehunter
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonPyw
57% · 282 games47% · 372 games
TinyBoBoKa
Tiny
Phoenix
PhoenixDy
47% · 256 games48% · 338 games
Warlock天命
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteYakult Brothers · 69%
Series resultYakult Brothers 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2