?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 29. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Resilienceloss 0:2
series probability
10%90%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Vici Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Resilience

Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Echo · 3 games
100%
Clinkz
Clinkzoften banned
poyoyo · 2 games
100%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
zzq · 2 games
100%
Muerta
Muerta
poyoyo · 2 games
100%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
zzq · 2 games
100%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
niu · 1 game
100%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
pLAnet · 1 game
100%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
pLAnet · 1 game
100%

Vici Gaming

Mars
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 19 games
68%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
y` · 18 games
33%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
shiro · 12 games
50%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
pLAnet · 11 games
73%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
shiro · 10 games
50%
Marci
Marcisignature
shiro · 10 games
70%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 10 games
40%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Xm · 9 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
642 picks · 695 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
520 picks · 455 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
496 picks · 416 bans
50%
Warlock
Warlock
433 picks · 290 bans
48%
Phoenix
Phoenix
422 picks · 407 bans
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
401 picks · 1104 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
393 picks · 844 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
382 picks · 570 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 57%
Hero pool strength60% Team Resilience
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total90% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:23
Team Resilience 26%Vici Gaming 74%
The model gave 74% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 41:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
Muertapoyoyo
50% · 220 games42% · 220 games
Queen of PainXm
Queen of Pain
Invoker
InvokerEcho
55% · 173 games47% · 302 games
Tinyshiro
Tiny
Tidehunter
Tidehunterniu
47% · 300 games47% · 263 games
SlardarFaith_bian
Slardar
Hoodwink
HoodwinkpLAnet
55% · 426 games49% · 124 games
RubickXinQ
Rubick
Elder Titan
Elder Titanzzq
53% · 56 games55% · 266 games
Shadow Demony`
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct16:30
Team Resilience 25%Vici Gaming 75%
The model gave 75% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 38:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
Clinkzpoyoyo
45% · 68 games55% · 221 game
BristlebackFaith_bian
Bristleback
Beastmaster
BeastmasterEcho
46% · 289 games50% · 138 games
Monkey Kingshiro
Monkey King
Pangolier
Pangolierniu
45% · 279 games46% · 272 games
Ember SpiritXm
Ember Spirit
Techies
TechiespLAnet
46% · 16 games57% · 78 games
RubickXinQ
Rubick
Chen
Chenzzq
57% · 157 games53% · 100 games
Dazzley`
Dazzle
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 90%
Series resultVici Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2