DreamLeague Season 28. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionTSTeam Sangreloss 1:2
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Estar Backswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Sangre
Muerta
Michael · 3 games
Axe
Sacred · 1 game
Clinkzoften banned
Pakazs · 1 game
Crystal Maiden
Yadomi · 1 game
Luna
Pakazs · 1 game
Phantom Assassin
Pakazs · 1 game
Phoenix
Sacred · 1 game
Pudge
Pakazs · 1 game
Estar Backs
Disruptor
Accel · 6 games
Alchemist
bsK7- · 5 games
Hoodwink
Michael · 4 games
Snapfire
Michael · 4 games
Tusk
Accel · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
Michael · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
bsK7- · 2 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
bsK7- · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
563 picks · 715 bans
Tusk
507 picks · 351 bans
Dragon Knight
486 picks · 657 bans
Centaur Warrunner
450 picks · 545 bans
Snapfire
397 picks · 135 bans
Hoodwink
386 picks · 184 bans
Gyrocopter
373 picks · 523 bans
Mars
373 picks · 516 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Team Sangre
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Team Sangre
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:16
Team Sangre 50%Estar Backs 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Sangre — the game was taken by Team Sangre in 34:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendPakazs
KezbsK7-
Keeper of the LightMichael
Treant ProtectorAccel
TuskYadomi
Game 2prediction missed33:51
Team Sangre 54%Estar Backs 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Sangre — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 42:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MuertaPakazs
OmniknightbsK7-
Skywrath MageMichael
DisruptorAccel
TuskYadomi
Game 3prediction missed26:37
Team Sangre 51%Estar Backs 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Sangre — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 35:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendPakazs
GyrocopterbsK7-
MuertaMichael
DisruptorAccel
ClockwerkYadomi
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Sangre · 54%
Series resultEstar Backs 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3