Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Европа 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 1:2series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Alliancewin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Rubicksignature
YapzOr · 7 games
Tusksignature
YapzOr · 7 games
Beastmastersignature
zai · 6 games
Pangoliersignature
zai · 6 games
Pucksignature
Puppey · 6 games
Death Prophetoften banned
zai · 5 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Puppey · 5 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
MATUMBAMAN · 5 games
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
430 picks · 966 bans
Void Spirit
400 picks · 559 bans
Death Prophet
358 picks · 708 bans
Mars
341 picks · 578 bans
Grimstroke
309 picks · 296 bans
Earth Spirit
297 picks · 290 bans
Tusk
293 picks · 209 bans
Lion
263 picks · 141 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% Team Secret
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total60% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:20
Team Secret 60%Alliance 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Alliance in 37:51.
Game 2prediction correct24:30
Team Secret 60%Alliance 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 44:37.
Game 3prediction missed18:27
Team Secret 60%Alliance 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Alliance in 38:41.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 60%
Series resultAlliance 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3