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ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretwin 2:1
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Allianceloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Crystallis · 17 games
53%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
yamich · 16 games
50%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Puppey · 14 games
43%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Armel · 13 games
31%
Magnus
Magnus
Armel · 12 games
33%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
yamich · 12 games
42%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Armel · 12 games
33%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Armel · 12 games
33%

Alliance

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
224 picks · 273 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
209 picks · 237 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
206 picks · 90 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
187 picks · 399 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
176 picks · 238 bans
48%
Sven
Sven
171 picks · 250 bans
57%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
169 picks · 171 bans
59%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
169 picks · 387 bans
66%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 55%
Hero pool strength53% Alliance
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total71% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:45
Team Secret 71%Alliance 29%
The model gave 71% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Alliance in 46:52.
Game 2prediction correct44:19
Team Secret 71%Alliance 29%
The model gave 71% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 39:12.
Game 3prediction correct56:48
Team Secret 71%Alliance 29%
The model gave 71% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 1:25:54.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 71%
Series resultTeam Secret 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3