DreamLeague Season 26. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretwin 2:1series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BBBikini Bottomloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 15 games
Bristlebacksignature
MikSa` · 14 games
Lionsignature
Thiolicor · 14 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Thiolicor · 13 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
423 · 11 games
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Kyzko · 10 games
Elder Titan
Puppey · 10 games
Tinysignature
Supream^ · 10 games
Bikini Bottom
Jakiro
aik · 3 games
Bounty Hunteroften banned
QBFY · 2 games
Marsoften banned
fortniteMan · 2 games
Leshrac
ряф^^ · 1 game
Lion
QBFY · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
rincyq · 1 game
Night Stalkeroften banned
fortniteMan · 1 game
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
ряф^^ · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
520 picks · 715 bans
Muerta
429 picks · 312 bans
Phoenix
426 picks · 699 bans
Clockwerk
409 picks · 399 bans
Bristleback
378 picks · 869 bans
Phantom Assassin
378 picks · 645 bans
Magnus
377 picks · 1000 bans
Pangolier
364 picks · 507 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 63%
Hero pool strength52% Team Secret
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:21
Team Secret 69%Bikini Bottom 31%
The model gave 69% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 41:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinSupream^
Svenrincyq
Monkey KingParker
Queen of Painряф^^
Nature's ProphetPuppey
MagnusfortniteMan
SlardarMikSa`
TuskQBFY
WindrangerThiolicor
Crystal Maidenaik
Game 2prediction missed26:30
Team Secret 68%Bikini Bottom 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Bikini Bottom in 35:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaParker
Terrorbladerincyq
TinySupream^
Ember Spiritряф^^
Sand KingMikSa`
TidehunterfortniteMan
SnapfirePuppey
Ringmasteraik
HoodwinkThiolicor
TuskQBFY
Game 3prediction correct28:12
Team Secret 71%Bikini Bottom 29%
The model gave 71% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 30:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinParker
Kunkkaряф^^
TinySupream^
Ursarincyq
BeastmasterMikSa`
MarsfortniteMan
Keeper of the LightThiolicor
Bounty HunterQBFY
Elder TitanPuppey
Ringmasteraik
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 84%
Series resultTeam Secret 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3