Elite League · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 0:2series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Blacklist Internationalwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Batridersignature
Ekki · 13 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 13 games
Primal Beastsignature
BOOM · 13 games
Razorsignature
Crystallis · 13 games
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 11 games
Tusk
yamich · 11 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
BOOM · 9 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Puppey · 9 games
Blacklist International
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
488 picks · 776 bans
Mars
449 picks · 707 bans
Techies
444 picks · 350 bans
Batrider
442 picks · 932 bans
Tiny
438 picks · 587 bans
Crystal Maiden
428 picks · 191 bans
Rubick
416 picks · 201 bans
Lion
414 picks · 357 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 65%
Hero pool strength55% Team Secret
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total52% Blacklist International
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:33
Team Secret 48%Blacklist International 52%
The model gave 52% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 40:59.
Game 2prediction correct12:26
Team Secret 48%Blacklist International 52%
The model gave 52% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 31:34.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlacklist International · 52%
Series resultBlacklist International 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2