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Elite League · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 0:2
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BOOM Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 13 games
85%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 13 games
69%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
BOOM · 13 games
69%
Razor
Razorsignature
Crystallis · 13 games
62%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 11 games
27%
Tusk
Tusk
yamich · 10 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
BOOM · 9 games
33%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Puppey · 9 games
78%

BOOM Esports

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panda · 14 games
57%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Panda · 14 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
ILICH- · 13 games
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
ILICH- · 12 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 10 games
30%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Panda · 10 games
60%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
ILICH- · 10 games
40%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Pakazs · 10 games
90%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
481 picks · 774 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
446 picks · 706 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
439 picks · 347 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
437 picks · 579 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
436 picks · 924 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
422 picks · 189 bans
56%
Lion
Lion
414 picks · 357 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
410 picks · 198 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 69%
Hero pool strength51% Team Secret
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:49
Team Secret 46%BOOM Esports 54%
The model gave 54% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 58:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaCrystallis
60% · 176 games43% · 128 games
WindrangerPakazs
Windranger
Slardar
SlardarBOOM
46% · 25 games50% · 249 games
DoomILICH-
Doom
Mirana
MiranaPuppey
53% · 192 games48% · 147 games
DisruptorPanda
Disruptor
Clockwerk
ClockwerkAhFu
51% · 131 game
Game 2prediction correct4:30
Team Secret 44%BOOM Esports 56%
The model gave 56% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 31:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerCrystallis
54% · 25 games46% · 147 games
TerrorbladePakazs
Terrorblade
Tidehunter
TidehunterBOOM
41% · 76 games52% · 129 games
KunkkaILICH-
Kunkka
Rubick
RubickAhFu
48% · 260 games60% · 170 games
Crystal MaidenPanda
Crystal Maiden
Tusk
TuskPuppey
48% · 85 games
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 57%
Series resultBOOM Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2