Riyadh Masters 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretwin 2:0series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Dandelionsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Batridersignature
Ekki · 19 games
Rubick
Thiolicor · 18 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Crystallis · 14 games
Razorsignature
Crystallis · 13 games
Clockwerk
Puppey · 11 games
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 10 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
BOOM · 9 games
Primal Beastsignature
BOOM · 9 games
Dandelions
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
486 picks · 223 bans
Tiny
446 picks · 696 bans
Centaur Warrunner
433 picks · 615 bans
Gyrocopter
426 picks · 389 bans
Batrider
414 picks · 750 bans
Rubick
386 picks · 161 bans
Pangolier
355 picks · 751 bans
Dragon Knight
348 picks · 1040 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Team Secret
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:14
Team Secret 64%Dandelions 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 29:30.
Game 2prediction correct37:23
Team Secret 64%Dandelions 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 49:25.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 64%
Series resultTeam Secret 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2