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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretwin 2:1
series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Entityloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Puppey · 11 games
64%
Io
Iooften banned
Puppey · 10 games
30%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
YapzOr · 9 games
67%
Bane
Banesignature
Puppey · 8 games
63%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Puppey · 8 games
63%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyersignature
SumaiL · 8 games
75%
Rubick
Rubick
YapzOr · 7 games
57%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
YapzOr · 7 games
29%

Entity

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
445 picks · 264 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
396 picks · 545 bans
55%
Weaver
Weaver
325 picks · 409 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
314 picks · 578 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
299 picks · 335 bans
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
291 picks · 462 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
273 picks · 378 bans
51%
Kunkka
Kunkka
268 picks · 489 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 74%
Hero pool strength53% Team Secret
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:19
Team Secret 27%Entity 73%
The model gave 73% on Entity — the game was taken by Team Secret in 41:04.
Game 2prediction correct14:34
Team Secret 27%Entity 73%
The model gave 73% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 1:00:50.
Game 3prediction missed29:16
Team Secret 27%Entity 73%
The model gave 73% on Entity — the game was taken by Team Secret in 32:27.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 73%
Series resultTeam Secret 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3