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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 1:2
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Entitywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Tusk
Tusksignature
Zayac · 22 games
68%
Chen
Chensignature
Puppey · 21 game
62%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Zayac · 18 games
83%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Resolut1on · 17 games
59%
Marci
Marcisignature
Zayac · 17 games
65%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Resolut1on · 16 games
63%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 16 games
63%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Crystallis · 15 games
47%

Entity

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
352 picks · 341 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
331 picks · 325 bans
49%
Mirana
Mirana
257 picks · 254 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
250 picks · 189 bans
60%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
199 picks · 142 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
177 picks · 104 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
176 picks · 493 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
169 picks · 453 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 42%
Hero pool strength59% Team Secret
Head-to-head2 – 4
Model total57% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:40
Team Secret 57%Entity 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Entity in 36:37.
Game 2prediction correct33:16
Team Secret 57%Entity 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 41:17.
Game 3prediction missed5:31
Team Secret 57%Entity 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Entity in 30:59.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 57%
Series resultEntity 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3