Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 0:2series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Entitywin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Techies
yamich · 9 games
Tusk
yamich · 9 games
Miranasignature
Puppey · 8 games
Primal Beastsignature
Armel · 8 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Armel · 7 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 7 games
Death Prophetsignature
Armel · 6 games
Pugnaoften banned
Puppey · 6 games
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
692 picks · 597 bans
Disruptor
552 picks · 487 bans
Beastmaster
437 picks · 1077 bans
Doom
431 picks · 767 bans
Ember Spirit
396 picks · 1011 bans
Mirana
378 picks · 201 bans
Enchantress
374 picks · 540 bans
Pangolier
370 picks · 815 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 30%
Hero pool strength55% Team Secret
Head-to-head1 – 5
Model total51% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:28
Team Secret 51%Entity 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Entity in 42:36.
Game 2prediction missed9:24
Team Secret 51%Entity 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Entity in 35:01.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 51%
Series resultEntity 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2