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ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 1:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Entitywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
BOOM · 14 games
64%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Crystallis · 14 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Puppey · 12 games
75%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 10 games
70%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
BOOM · 9 games
67%
Invoker
Invokersignature
MidOne · 9 games
78%
Lion
Lion
Ekki · 9 games
44%
Doom
Doomsignature
yamich · 8 games
63%

Entity

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
333 picks · 497 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
288 picks · 427 bans
49%
Lion
Lion
279 picks · 241 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
270 picks · 188 bans
52%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
262 picks · 452 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
251 picks · 351 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
250 picks · 728 bans
54%
Magnus
Magnus
248 picks · 395 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 47%
Hero pool strength57% Team Secret
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total53% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:35
Team Secret 53%Entity 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Entity in 42:29.
Game 2prediction correct29:19
Team Secret 53%Entity 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 31:15.
Game 3prediction missed10:34
Team Secret 53%Entity 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Entity in 36:16.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 53%
Series resultEntity 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3