The International 10 (2021) · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 0:2series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Fnaticwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Snapfiresignature
YapzOr · 10 games
Magnussignature
zai · 7 games
Puckoften banned
Nisha · 7 games
Leshracoften banned
Nisha · 6 games
Monkey Kingsignature
YapzOr · 6 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Puppey · 5 games
Grimstroke
Puppey · 5 games
Ogre Magi
Puppey · 5 games
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
299 picks · 178 bans
Mars
285 picks · 398 bans
Lina
278 picks · 551 bans
Pangolier
257 picks · 372 bans
Shadow Demon
248 picks · 257 bans
Hoodwink
245 picks · 89 bans
Tidehunter
235 picks · 399 bans
Void Spirit
220 picks · 251 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 36%
Hero pool strength55% Team Secret
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:30
Team Secret 58%Fnatic 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Fnatic in 42:50.
Game 2prediction missed7:32
Team Secret 58%Fnatic 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Fnatic in 35:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 58%
Series resultFnatic 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2