Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Snapfiresignature
YapzOr · 14 games
Iooften banned
Puppey · 12 games
Tinysignature
YapzOr · 10 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
YapzOr · 9 games
Rubick
YapzOr · 9 games
Enchantresssignature
Puppey · 8 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
YapzOr · 8 games
Ogre Magisignature
Puppey · 8 games
Gaimin Gladiators
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 17 games
Tidehuntersignature
Ace · 16 games
Banesignature
tOfu · 15 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Seleri · 15 games
Weaversignature
tOfu · 15 games
Phantom Assassinsignature
dyrachyo · 11 games
Queen of Painsignature
BOOM · 10 games
Ember Spiritsignature
BOOM · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
455 picks · 274 bans
Mars
382 picks · 527 bans
Queen of Pain
367 picks · 501 bans
Weaver
353 picks · 471 bans
Death Prophet
297 picks · 467 bans
Kunkka
286 picks · 507 bans
Grimstroke
266 picks · 188 bans
Ember Spirit
264 picks · 331 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 64%
Hero pool strength53% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:20
Team Secret 45%Gaimin Gladiators 55%
The model gave 55% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 27:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-MageSumaiL
Storm SpiritBOOM
Dragon Knighticeiceice
MeepoAce
Queen of PainNisha
Marsdyrachyo
EnchantressPuppey
Keeper of the LighttOfu
Nyx AssassinYapzOr
IoSeleri
Game 2prediction correct16:32
Team Secret 45%Gaimin Gladiators 55%
The model gave 55% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 32:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersawiceiceice
Chaos Knightdyrachyo
MarsSumaiL
Ember SpiritBOOM
HuskarNisha
TidehunterAce
EnchantressPuppey
WeavertOfu
SnapfireYapzOr
IoSeleri
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 61%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2