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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 1:2
series probability
11%89%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Tusk
Tusk
yamich · 9 games
56%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Puppey · 8 games
63%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
BOOM · 8 games
75%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Armel · 7 games
71%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Armel · 6 games
67%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 6 games
83%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
BOOM · 5 games
60%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 5 games
60%

Gaimin Gladiators

Rubick
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 45 games
73%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 34 games
71%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 28 games
75%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Ace · 28 games
61%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 27 games
78%
Doom
Doomsignature
Ace · 24 games
75%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Seleri · 24 games
83%
Io
Iosignature
Seleri · 23 games
74%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
752 picks · 605 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
550 picks · 469 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
420 picks · 999 bans
58%
Tiny
Tiny
409 picks · 375 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
397 picks · 941 bans
51%
Doom
Doom
391 picks · 605 bans
53%
Undying
Undying
386 picks · 602 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
383 picks · 206 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 67%
Hero pool strength58% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total89% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:9
Team Secret 24%Gaimin Gladiators 76%
The model gave 76% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Team Secret in 42:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckArmel
55% · 210 games50% · 101 game
Terrorbladedyrachyo
Terrorblade
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerCrystallis
47% · 102 games54% · 163 games
BeastmasterAce
Beastmaster
Axe
AxeBOOM
46% · 17 games59% · 96 games
Storm SpiritQuinn
Storm Spirit
Pugna
Pugnayamich
45% · 67 games46% · 44 games
WindrangertOfu
Windranger
Lich
LichPuppey
45% · 83 games47% · 75 games
SilencerSeleri
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct20:22
Team Secret 21%Gaimin Gladiators 79%
The model gave 79% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 37:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaArmel
54% · 86 games56% · 40 games
Medusadyrachyo
Medusa
Magnus
MagnusBOOM
39% · 39 games53% · 145 games
BeastmasterAce
Beastmaster
Slark
SlarkCrystallis
46% · 92 games48% · 48 games
Void SpiritQuinn
Void Spirit
Pugna
PugnaPuppey
46% · 55 games56% · 16 games
Bounty HunterSeleri
Bounty Hunter
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonyamich
46% · 26 games57% · 49 games
TechiestOfu
Techies
Game 3prediction correct11:26
Team Secret 24%Gaimin Gladiators 76%
The model gave 76% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 23:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierArmel
53% · 239 games56% · 259 games
BeastmasterAce
Beastmaster
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordCrystallis
50% · 47 games44% · 62 games
Magnusdyrachyo
Magnus
Axe
AxeBOOM
41% · 15 games45% · 111 games
Void SpiritQuinn
Void Spirit
Snapfire
Snapfireyamich
56% · 288 games47% · 79 games
TechiestOfu
Techies
Pugna
PugnaPuppey
46% · 55 games48% · 133 games
PhoenixSeleri
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 89%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3