PGL Wallachia Season 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretwin 2:1series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Kyzko · 12 games
Batrideroften banned
Puppey · 11 games
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 11 games
Dragon Knightsignature
423 · 10 games
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Kyzko · 9 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
423 · 9 games
Bristlebacksignature
MikSa` · 8 games
Invokersignature
xn丶e · 8 games
Gaimin Gladiators
Muerta
tOfu · 27 games
Pangolieroften banned
Quinn · 17 games
Doomoften banned
Ace · 15 games
Enchantressoften banned
Seleri · 15 games
Mirana
tOfu · 15 games
Morphlingsignature
Watson · 15 games
Chenoften banned
Seleri · 14 games
Invokeroften banned
Quinn · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
528 picks · 721 bans
Clockwerk
488 picks · 567 bans
Batrider
485 picks · 608 bans
Muerta
479 picks · 409 bans
Tiny
472 picks · 570 bans
Gyrocopter
443 picks · 798 bans
Magnus
439 picks · 974 bans
Lion
396 picks · 230 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 54%
Hero pool strength51% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total77% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:21
Team Secret 36%Gaimin Gladiators 64%
The model gave 64% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Team Secret in 33:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MeepoParker
LycanAce
BeastmasterMikSa`
Templar AssassinWatson
TinySupream^
LeshracQuinn
Nyx AssassinThiolicor
ZeustOfu
Elder TitanPuppey
ClockwerkSeleri
Game 2prediction correct6:32
Team Secret 33%Gaimin Gladiators 67%
The model gave 67% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 32:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingParker
MagnusWatson
EarthshakerSupream^
PangolierQuinn
Primal BeastMikSa`
TidehunterAce
WarlockPuppey
ChenSeleri
RubickThiolicor
MuertatOfu
Game 3prediction missed32:12
Team Secret 32%Gaimin Gladiators 68%
The model gave 68% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Team Secret in 41:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterParker
Dragon KnightWatson
TimbersawMikSa`
DawnbreakerAce
PangolierSupream^
PuckQuinn
LionThiolicor
Nyx AssassintOfu
Elder TitanPuppey
LichSeleri
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 77%
Series resultTeam Secret 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3