DreamLeague Season 26. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Secretwin 1:0series probability
92%8%
probability at match start · final 1:0
HMHoly Molyloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 15 games
Bristlebacksignature
MikSa` · 14 games
Lionsignature
Thiolicor · 14 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Thiolicor · 13 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
423 · 11 games
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Kyzko · 10 games
Elder Titan
Puppey · 10 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
423 · 9 games
Holy Moly
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
517 picks · 712 bans
Muerta
427 picks · 312 bans
Phoenix
426 picks · 698 bans
Clockwerk
409 picks · 399 bans
Bristleback
378 picks · 868 bans
Magnus
377 picks · 997 bans
Phantom Assassin
377 picks · 642 bans
Pangolier
364 picks · 505 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Team Secret
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total92% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct48:19
Team Secret 92%Holy Moly 8%
The model gave 92% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 31:47.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 92%
Series resultTeam Secret 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1