The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretwin 2:1series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Into The Breachloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Clockwerksignature
Puppey · 12 games
Razoroften banned
Crystallis · 11 games
Chensignature
Puppey · 10 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 10 games
Timbersawoften banned
Nisha · 10 games
Zeussignature
Nisha · 10 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Resolut1on · 9 games
Doomoften banned
Zayac · 9 games
Into The Breach
Enigmasignature
Xibbe · 18 games
Tinysignature
Ari · 14 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Kidaro · 13 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Supream^ · 11 games
Terrorbladesignature
Otaker · 11 games
Hoodwink
Ari · 10 games
Void Spiritsignature
Supream^ · 10 games
Enchantressoften banned
Kidaro · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
709 picks · 559 bans
Dawnbreaker
500 picks · 654 bans
Marci
496 picks · 788 bans
Puck
484 picks · 1019 bans
Winter Wyvern
368 picks · 424 bans
Zeus
329 picks · 397 bans
Snapfire
320 picks · 157 bans
Razor
300 picks · 574 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 69%
Hero pool strength52% Into The Breach
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:21
Team Secret 57%Into The Breach 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 42:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
InvokerNisha
Death ProphetXibbe
EnigmaResolut1on
Void SpiritSupream^
Faceless VoidCrystallis
PudgeOtaker
EnchantressPuppey
PangolierAri
TuskZayac
Crystal MaidenKidaro
Game 2prediction missed13:29
Team Secret 58%Into The Breach 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 52:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordCrystallis
LinaSupream^
InvokerNisha
SlarkOtaker
MarciResolut1on
RazorXibbe
TechiesZayac
Crystal MaidenKidaro
OmniknightPuppey
TinyAri
Game 3prediction correct39:15
Team Secret 60%Into The Breach 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 41:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidCrystallis
Death ProphetXibbe
PangolierNisha
DawnbreakerOtaker
MarciResolut1on
InvokerSupream^
Witch DoctorPuppey
ChenKidaro
MiranaZayac
TinyAri
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 67%
Series resultTeam Secret 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3