Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretwin 2:0series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Into The Breachloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Tusksignature
Zayac · 23 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Zayac · 18 games
Marcisignature
Zayac · 17 games
Chen
Puppey · 16 games
Leshracsignature
Resolut1on · 16 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 15 games
Razoroften banned
Crystallis · 15 games
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 14 games
Into The Breach
Crystal Maidensignature
Kidaro · 16 games
Tiny
Ari · 16 games
Lycansignature
Xibbe · 11 games
Enigmasignature
Xibbe · 10 games
Pudgesignature
Otaker · 10 games
Dazzle
Kidaro · 9 games
Slarksignature
Otaker · 8 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
376 picks · 358 bans
Tiny
336 picks · 332 bans
Rubick
293 picks · 214 bans
Mirana
270 picks · 271 bans
Crystal Maiden
194 picks · 143 bans
Snapfire
189 picks · 106 bans
Pangolier
181 picks · 502 bans
Treant Protector
180 picks · 243 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 38%
Hero pool strength51% Team Secret
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total78% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:9
Team Secret 65%Into The Breach 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 34:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaCrystallis
DoomXibbe
PangolierBOOM
BatriderSupream^
VisageResolut1on
SpectreOtaker
SnapfireZayac
RubickKidaro
Treant ProtectorPuppey
Earth SpiritImmersion
Game 2prediction correct34:9
Team Secret 67%Into The Breach 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 35:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
InvokerBOOM
LinaOtaker
Drow RangerCrystallis
Dragon KnightSupream^
Primal BeastResolut1on
VisageXibbe
Treant ProtectorPuppey
Earth SpiritImmersion
Nyx AssassinZayac
Crystal MaidenKidaro
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 78%
Series resultTeam Secret 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2