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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretwin 2:0
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Into The Breachloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Resolut1on · 15 games
60%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Zayac · 15 games
87%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Zayac · 11 games
55%
Tusk
Tusk
Zayac · 11 games
55%
Chen
Chensignature
Puppey · 8 games
63%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Crystallis · 8 games
75%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Crystallis · 8 games
38%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Puppey · 8 games
75%

Into The Breach

Rubick
Rubick
Immersion · 11 games
45%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Otaker · 8 games
38%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Xibbe · 7 games
43%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Immersion · 7 games
14%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 7 games
29%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Kidaro · 7 games
29%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Xibbe · 7 games
29%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Supream^ · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
955 picks · 644 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
659 picks · 458 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
571 picks · 917 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
553 picks · 441 bans
47%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
536 picks · 530 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
509 picks · 340 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
490 picks · 1074 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
461 picks · 344 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 30%
Hero pool strength62% Team Secret
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total78% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:13
Team Secret 66%Into The Breach 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 36:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonCrystallis
47% · 51 game56% · 164 games
PuckSupream^
Puck
Primal Beast
Primal BeastArmel
50% · 154 games48% · 130 games
Naga SirenOtaker
Naga Siren
Broodmother
BroodmotherBOOM
53% · 182 games47% · 100 games
ViperXibbe
Viper
Monkey King
Monkey Kingyamich
51% · 207 games51% · 65 games
EarthshakerImmersion
Earthshaker
Dazzle
DazzlePuppey
46% · 120 games48% · 255 games
SnapfireRESPECT
Snapfire
Game 2prediction correct35:16
Team Secret 66%Into The Breach 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 59:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperArmel
41% · 85 games51% · 171 game
LycanOtaker
Lycan
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritCrystallis
47% · 301 game52% · 465 games
PangolierXibbe
Pangolier
Monkey King
Monkey Kingyamich
62% · 160 games51% · 39 games
HuskarSupream^
Huskar
Death Prophet
Death ProphetBOOM
42% · 245 games48% · 190 games
PhoenixImmersion
Phoenix
Tusk
TuskPuppey
53% · 330 games55% · 256 games
DisruptorRESPECT
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 78%
Series resultTeam Secret 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2