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The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretwin 2:0
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Level UPloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 20 games
65%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
yamich · 14 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Armel · 14 games
36%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Crystallis · 13 games
54%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Puppey · 13 games
46%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 13 games
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Armel · 12 games
50%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Armel · 12 games
33%

Level UP

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 16 games
63%
Silencer
Silencer
MiLAN · 13 games
54%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
OwnedMe · 12 games
75%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
Daxak · 10 games
90%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
swedenstrong · 9 games
67%
Sven
Sven
Daxak · 9 games
44%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
MiLAN · 9 games
56%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
Daxak · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
461 picks · 226 bans
46%
Techies
Techies
443 picks · 480 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
395 picks · 655 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
367 picks · 600 bans
50%
Morphling
Morphling
333 picks · 695 bans
52%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
326 picks · 765 bans
49%
Undying
Undying
308 picks · 516 bans
46%
Doom
Doom
301 picks · 574 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)27% vs 64%
Hero pool strength58% Level UP
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:4
Team Secret 53%Level UP 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 57:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenCrystallis
53% · 121 game53% · 103 games
MedusaDaxak
Medusa
Earthshaker
EarthshakerArmel
52% · 132 games48% · 113 games
Templar AssassinLorenof
Templar Assassin
Dark Seer
Dark SeerFbz
58% · 177 games46% · 53 games
BrewmasterOwnedMe
Brewmaster
Warlock
WarlockPuppey
55% · 28 games45% · 338 games
Rubickswedenstrong
Rubick
Doom
Doomyamich
49% · 389 games44% · 240 games
UndyingMiLAN
Undying
Game 2prediction correct26:12
Team Secret 53%Level UP 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 1:21:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinArmel
48% · 140 games49% · 229 games
TerrorbladeDaxak
Terrorblade
Doom
DoomFbz
51% · 289 games47% · 131 game
Dragon KnightLorenof
Dragon Knight
Sven
SvenCrystallis
55% · 106 games55% · 139 games
Dark SeerOwnedMe
Dark Seer
Elder Titan
Elder Titanyamich
51% · 41 game50% · 182 games
Keeper of the Lightswedenstrong
Keeper of the Light
Disruptor
DisruptorPuppey
48% · 268 games46% · 163 games
MarciMiLAN
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 54%
Series resultTeam Secret 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2