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FISSURE Universe: Episode 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 1:2
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:2
MOUZwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 19 games
68%
Rubick
Rubick
Thiolicor · 16 games
38%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Crystallis · 14 games
57%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Crystallis · 12 games
58%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Puppey · 10 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 10 games
30%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
BOOM · 9 games
67%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
BOOM · 8 games
50%

MOUZ

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
bengan · 29 games
66%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Ulnit · 27 games
59%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 26 games
73%
Tiny
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 26 games
65%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 21 game
71%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
NARMAN · 18 games
61%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Supream^ · 17 games
53%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 16 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
463 picks · 221 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
405 picks · 632 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
399 picks · 362 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
393 picks · 697 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
389 picks · 561 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
364 picks · 156 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
354 picks · 759 bans
53%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
327 picks · 925 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 58%
Hero pool strength56% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total55% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:15
Team Secret 46%MOUZ 54%
The model gave 54% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Team Secret in 45:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerBOOM
49% · 212 games42% · 113 games
SvenUlnit
Sven
Ursa
UrsaCrystallis
58% · 42 games60% · 78 games
LeshracSupream^
Leshrac
Snapfire
SnapfireShishak
44% · 133 games51% · 75 games
Dark SeerForce
Dark Seer
Phoenix
PhoenixPuppey
51% · 120 games45% · 209 games
RubickNARMAN
Rubick
61% · 32 games
Oraclebengan
Oracle
Game 2prediction correct12:26
Team Secret 49%MOUZ 51%
The model gave 51% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 43:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautCrystallis
45% · 50 games49% · 65 games
LeshracSupream^
Leshrac
Hoodwink
HoodwinkShishak
44% · 125 games49% · 32 games
UrsaUlnit
Ursa
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderBOOM
62% · 38 games56% · 99 games
TimbersawForce
Timbersaw
Phoenix
PhoenixPuppey
47% · 146 games57% · 46 games
Treant Protectorbengan
Treant Protector
47% · 117 games
Vengeful SpiritNARMAN
Vengeful Spirit
Game 3prediction correct7:16
Team Secret 46%MOUZ 54%
The model gave 54% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 26:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaCrystallis
51% · 77 games44% · 72 games
JuggernautUlnit
Juggernaut
Night Stalker
Night StalkerBOOM
50% · 12 games53% · 65 games
Death ProphetSupream^
Death Prophet
Rubick
RubickShishak
45% · 155 games57% · 50 games
Legion CommanderForce
Legion Commander
Disruptor
DisruptorPuppey
47% · 52 games59% · 13 games
Witch Doctorbengan
Witch Doctor
54% · 96 games
Dark WillowNARMAN
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 55%
Series resultMOUZ 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3