DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretwin 2:0series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Primal Beastsignature
BOOM · 13 games
Razoroften banned
Crystallis · 12 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 11 games
Batridersignature
Ekki · 10 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
BOOM · 9 games
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 9 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Puppey · 9 games
Tusk
yamich · 9 games
Natus Vincere Junior
Snapfire
Daze · 31 game
Grimstrokeoften banned
Riddys · 23 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 20 games
Lion
Riddys · 20 games
Morphlingoften banned
gotthejuice · 17 games
Faceless Voidsignature
gotthejuice · 15 games
Pugna
Riddys · 15 games
Marcisignature
Daze · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
397 picks · 646 bans
Lion
384 picks · 355 bans
Mars
379 picks · 613 bans
Techies
376 picks · 307 bans
Batrider
357 picks · 779 bans
Vengeful Spirit
350 picks · 352 bans
Tiny
346 picks · 403 bans
Hoodwink
334 picks · 202 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 52%
Hero pool strength56% Team Secret
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:26
Team Secret 58%Natus Vincere Junior 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 42:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyBOOM
Pudgegotthejuice
Monkey KingCrystallis
PangolierNiku
EnchantressPuppey
Meepopma
TechiesAhFu
BatriderDaze
50% · 129 games
LichRiddys
Game 2prediction correct37:22
Team Secret 65%Natus Vincere Junior 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 41:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BrewmasterBOOM
Terrorbladegotthejuice
RazorCrystallis
PuckNiku
BatriderAhFu
Beastmasterpma
ClockwerkPuppey
TinyDaze
48% · 137 games
Vengeful SpiritRiddys
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 72%
Series resultTeam Secret 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2