Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 0:2series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Tusksignature
Zayac · 23 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Zayac · 19 games
Marcisignature
Zayac · 17 games
Leshracsignature
Resolut1on · 16 games
Razoroften banned
Crystallis · 15 games
Chen
Puppey · 14 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Crystallis · 14 games
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 13 games
Nigma Galaxy
Death Prophetoften banned
SumaiL · 9 games
Tusk
GH · 9 games
Enchantressoften banned
KuroKy · 8 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 8 games
Iosignature
GH · 7 games
Rubick
GH · 7 games
Chensignature
KuroKy · 6 games
Leshracsignature
SumaiL · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
395 picks · 382 bans
Tiny
353 picks · 355 bans
Rubick
333 picks · 229 bans
Mirana
286 picks · 288 bans
Snapfire
212 picks · 111 bans
Treant Protector
210 picks · 265 bans
Crystal Maiden
208 picks · 148 bans
Pangolier
191 picks · 525 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 27%
Hero pool strength57% Team Secret
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total70% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:29
Team Secret 62%Nigma Galaxy 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 37:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dark SeerResolut1on
Keeper of the LightSumaiL
Monkey KingCrystallis
Nature's ProphetMinD_ContRoL
TinyBOOM
RazorATF
RikiZayac
RubickGH
MarciPuppey
UndyingKuroKy
Game 2prediction missed11:31
Team Secret 60%Nigma Galaxy 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 36:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaBOOM
LeshracSumaiL
BloodseekerCrystallis
RazorATF
VisageResolut1on
Dark SeerMinD_ContRoL
TuskPuppey
Naga SirenGH
SnapfireZayac
ClockwerkKuroKy
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 70%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2