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Elite League · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretwin 2:0
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 14 games
79%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 13 games
69%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
BOOM · 13 games
69%
Razor
Razorsignature
Crystallis · 13 games
62%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 11 games
27%
Tusk
Tusk
yamich · 11 games
45%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
BOOM · 9 games
33%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Puppey · 9 games
78%

Nigma Galaxy

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fbz · 13 games
54%
Mirana
Mirana
KuroKy · 11 games
55%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Matthew · 11 games
55%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Miracle- · 11 games
55%
Batrider
Batridersignature
rmN- · 10 games
60%
Arc Warden
Arc Wardenoften banned
Miracle- · 8 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
SumaiL · 8 games
63%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
KuroKy · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
498 picks · 783 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
455 picks · 715 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
453 picks · 953 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
450 picks · 353 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
447 picks · 595 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
442 picks · 192 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
427 picks · 205 bans
49%
Lion
Lion
414 picks · 357 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% Team Secret
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:26
Team Secret 56%Nigma Galaxy 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 46:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerCrystallis
51% · 162 games52% · 160 games
Faceless VoidMiracle-
Faceless Void
Dark Seer
Dark SeerBOOM
50% · 133 games49% · 51 game
LinaSumaiL
Lina
Enchantress
EnchantressPuppey
46% · 248 games49% · 185 games
Centaur WarrunnerFbz
Centaur Warrunner
Tusk
TuskAhFu
48% · 185 games55% · 171 game
Crystal MaidenKuroKy
Crystal Maiden
52% · 161 game
DisruptorMatthew
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct26:5
Team Secret 55%Nigma Galaxy 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 25:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterBOOM
49% · 267 games50% · 125 games
Dragon KnightFbz
Dragon Knight
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterCrystallis
47% · 207 games57% · 207 games
PangolierSumaiL
Pangolier
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanAhFu
44% · 47 games48% · 139 games
MorphlingMiracle-
Morphling
Disruptor
DisruptorPuppey
50% · 259 games55% · 136 games
Shadow DemonMatthew
Shadow Demon
51% · 173 games
BatriderKuroKy
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 63%
Series resultTeam Secret 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2