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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretwin 2:1
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:1
OGloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
YapzOr · 13 games
77%
Io
Iooften banned
Puppey · 11 games
27%
Tiny
Tinysignature
YapzOr · 10 games
60%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
YapzOr · 9 games
56%
Rubick
Rubick
YapzOr · 9 games
44%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Puppey · 8 games
88%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
Puppey · 8 games
63%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyersignature
SumaiL · 8 games
75%

OG

Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 16 games
38%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Taiga · 15 games
53%
Bane
Bane
Misha · 11 games
55%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 11 games
45%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Yuragi · 11 games
82%
Razor
Razorsignature
Yuragi · 10 games
60%
Clinkz
Clinkz
SumaiL · 9 games
56%
Io
Iooften banned
Ceb · 9 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
438 picks · 263 bans
55%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
375 picks · 495 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
360 picks · 504 bans
54%
Weaver
Weaver
348 picks · 482 bans
51%
Kunkka
Kunkka
281 picks · 489 bans
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
269 picks · 413 bans
56%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
260 picks · 178 bans
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
249 picks · 298 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Team Secret
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total51% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:9
Team Secret 49%OG 51%
The model gave 51% on OG — the game was taken by Team Secret in 31:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterSumaiL
41% · 149 games52% · 102 games
JuggernautYuragi
Juggernaut
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNisha
49% · 202 games49% · 166 games
TimbersawATF
Timbersaw
Batrider
Batridericeiceice
51% · 102 games55% · 191 game
Invokerbzm
Invoker
Io
IoPuppey
54% · 178 games57% · 22 games
EnigmaTaiga
Enigma
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinYapzOr
56% · 171 game42% · 321 game
SnapfireMisha
Snapfire
Game 2prediction correct13:25
Team Secret 48%OG 52%
The model gave 52% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 34:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaNisha
51% · 159 games50% · 201 game
Monkey KingYuragi
Monkey King
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightSumaiL
39% · 28 games43% · 3 games
HuskarATF
Huskar
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knighticeiceice
44% · 110 games56% · 137 games
Tuskbzm
Tusk
Mirana
MiranaYapzOr
51% · 254 games49% · 215 games
EnchantressTaiga
Enchantress
Bane
BanePuppey
54% · 230 games50% · 225 games
AbaddonMisha
Abaddon
Game 3prediction correct39:29
Team Secret 51%OG 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 52:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidSumaiL
52% · 111 games52% · 202 games
TerrorbladeYuragi
Terrorblade
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNisha
52% · 167 games51% · 103 games
Batriderbzm
Batrider
Death Prophet
Death Propheticeiceice
55% · 165 games41% · 150 games
Sand KingATF
Sand King
Snapfire
SnapfirePuppey
51% · 163 games52% · 196 games
Shadow DemonTaiga
Shadow Demon
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritYapzOr
47% · 85 games46% · 40 games
Vengeful SpiritMisha
Vengeful Spirit
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 51%
Series resultTeam Secret 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3