Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 0:2series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 0:2
OGwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Snapfiresignature
Puppey · 10 games
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 9 games
Iooften banned
Puppey · 9 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
YapzOr · 9 games
Bane
Puppey · 7 games
Outworld Destroyersignature
iceiceice · 7 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 6 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Nisha · 6 games
OG
Marsoften banned
ATF · 19 games
Razorsignature
ATF · 18 games
Bane
Misha · 14 games
Kunkkaoften banned
bzm · 14 games
Snapfiresignature
Taiga · 13 games
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 13 games
Windrangersignature
Ceb · 13 games
Puckoften banned
bzm · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
460 picks · 630 bans
Tiny
444 picks · 432 bans
Bane
441 picks · 268 bans
Sand King
409 picks · 559 bans
Storm Spirit
396 picks · 626 bans
Dragon Knight
388 picks · 470 bans
Pangolier
352 picks · 548 bans
Keeper of the Light
329 picks · 647 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 71%
Hero pool strength54% OG
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total72% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:30
Team Secret 37%OG 63%
The model gave 63% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 42:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Necrophosiceiceice
BloodseekerYuragi
RazorCrystallis
Void Spiritbzm
PangolierNisha
ViperATF
ChenPuppey
EnigmaTaiga
DoomYapzOr
Treant ProtectorMisha
Game 2prediction correct15:30
Team Secret 38%OG 62%
The model gave 62% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 31:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RazorCrystallis
Morphlingbzm
Doomiceiceice
TimbersawATF
PangolierNisha
TinyYuragi
EnigmaYapzOr
Winter WyvernTaiga
IoPuppey
JakiroMisha
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 72%
Series resultOG 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2