ESL One Malaysia 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 0:2series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 0:2
OGwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Chensignature
Puppey · 12 games
Clockwerksignature
Puppey · 12 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 11 games
Timbersawoften banned
Nisha · 11 games
Doomsignature
Zayac · 10 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 10 games
Zeussignature
Nisha · 10 games
Razoroften banned
Crystallis · 9 games
OG
Razorsignature
ATF · 25 games
Pucksignature
bzm · 23 games
Windrangersignature
Ceb · 22 games
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 20 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Yuragi · 19 games
Earthshakersignature
Ceb · 18 games
Iooften banned
Ceb · 17 games
Vipersignature
ATF · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
735 picks · 568 bans
Puck
525 picks · 1050 bans
Dawnbreaker
469 picks · 622 bans
Marci
433 picks · 775 bans
Winter Wyvern
370 picks · 405 bans
Snapfire
350 picks · 180 bans
Zeus
326 picks · 378 bans
Razor
322 picks · 614 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 51%
Hero pool strength50% Team Secret
Head-to-head3 – 4
Model total66% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:39
Team Secret 39%OG 61%
The model gave 61% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 42:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
InvokerNisha
AlchemistYuragi
DawnbreakerResolut1on
MarsATF
RazorCrystallis
Queen of Painbzm
TuskPuppey
Dark WillowTaiga
Shadow ShamanZayac
PhoenixChuvash
Game 2prediction correct11:31
Team Secret 38%OG 62%
The model gave 62% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 27:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RazorCrystallis
SlarkYuragi
EnigmaNisha
BloodseekerATF
TidehunterResolut1on
Puckbzm
Skywrath MageZayac
ChenChuvash
Ogre MagiPuppey
Dark WillowTaiga
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 66%
Series resultOG 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2