Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretwin 2:0series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Spider Pigzsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Snapfiresignature
YapzOr · 10 games
Monkey Kingsignature
YapzOr · 8 games
Enchantresssignature
Puppey · 7 games
Iooften banned
Puppey · 7 games
Magnussignature
zai · 7 games
Ogre Magi
Puppey · 7 games
Elder Titansignature
Puppey · 6 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
YapzOr · 6 games
Spider Pigzs
Hoodwink
OmaR · 18 games
Pangolier
No!ob · 16 games
Lion
OmaR · 15 games
Lunaoften banned
lil pleb · 14 games
Grimstroke
OmaR · 12 games
Linaoften banned
No!ob · 12 games
Abaddon
LeBronDota · 11 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
OmaR · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
403 picks · 291 bans
Mars
384 picks · 549 bans
Snapfire
313 picks · 177 bans
Weaver
301 picks · 721 bans
Queen of Pain
292 picks · 355 bans
Kunkka
238 picks · 408 bans
Disruptor
233 picks · 156 bans
Ember Spirit
232 picks · 314 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 25%
Hero pool strength60% Team Secret
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:15
Team Secret 64%Spider Pigzs 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 38:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautNisha
Queen of PainNo!ob
InvokerSumaiL
UrsaThuG
Lycaniceiceice
PangolierFunn1k
Witch DoctorPuppey
RubickOmaR
Nyx AssassinYapzOr
Clockwerkdnz
Game 2prediction correct30:13
Team Secret 65%Spider Pigzs 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 40:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of PainNisha
Monkey KingThuG
Outworld DestroyerSumaiL
LinaNo!ob
Tidehuntericeiceice
BeastmasterFunn1k
SnapfireYapzOr
WeaverOmaR
Ogre MagiPuppey
Banednz
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 75%
Series resultTeam Secret 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2