The International 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Secretwin 2:0series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Talon Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Chensignature
Puppey · 21 game
Razoroften banned
Crystallis · 18 games
Tusksignature
Zayac · 17 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 16 games
Clockwerksignature
Puppey · 15 games
Dawnbreakersignature
Resolut1on · 13 games
Enigmasignature
Resolut1on · 13 games
Marcisignature
Zayac · 13 games
Talon Esports
Marcioften banned
Q · 21 game
Tiny
Q · 16 games
Pangoliersignature
Mikoto · 15 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 14 games
Bane
Hyde · 13 games
Dawnbreakersignature
Hyde · 13 games
Enchantresssignature
Hyde · 13 games
Faceless Voidsignature
23savage · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
534 picks · 403 bans
Marci
478 picks · 722 bans
Undying
307 picks · 515 bans
Death Prophet
305 picks · 479 bans
Puck
295 picks · 697 bans
Dawnbreaker
283 picks · 397 bans
Enigma
271 picks · 860 bans
Pangolier
265 picks · 368 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 41%
Hero pool strength56% Team Secret
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:9
Team Secret 64%Talon Esports 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 28:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendNisha
Doom23savage
SlardarCrystallis
Templar AssassinMikoto
MarciResolut1on
Visagekpii
Crystal MaidenPuppey
Nyx AssassinQ
TuskZayac
EnchantressHyde
Game 2prediction correct26:10
Team Secret 65%Talon Esports 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 36:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaNisha
LeshracMikoto
BloodseekerCrystallis
Lycankpii
BroodmotherResolut1on
Lone Druid23savage
TuskZayac
ClockwerkQ
BanePuppey
JakiroHyde
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 75%
Series resultTeam Secret 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2