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DreamLeague Season 20 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 1:1
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Talon Esportsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Mirana
Mirana
Puppey · 10 games
50%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
yamich · 9 games
33%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
yamich · 9 games
33%
Tusk
Tusk
yamich · 9 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Armel · 8 games
63%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 8 games
75%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
BOOM · 8 games
75%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Armel · 6 games
67%

Talon Esports

Tusk
Tusk
Q · 29 games
59%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Q · 25 games
68%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Jabz · 24 games
75%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Oli · 18 games
72%
Rubick
Rubick
Q · 17 games
59%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Mikoto · 17 games
82%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 16 games
81%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Oli · 16 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
736 picks · 626 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
601 picks · 529 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
520 picks · 1284 bans
59%
Doom
Doom
520 picks · 1013 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
452 picks · 1149 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
447 picks · 923 bans
54%
Mirana
Mirana
427 picks · 224 bans
58%
Enchantress
Enchantress
423 picks · 609 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 46%
Hero pool strength57% Talon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total52% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:39
Team Secret 51%Talon Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 34:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaCrystallis
43% · 16 games51% · 126 games
Alchemist23savage
Alchemist
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFbz
55% · 331 game50% · 227 games
BatriderJabz
Batrider
Magnus
MagnusArmel
54% · 166 games37% · 95 games
Winter WyvernMikoto
Winter Wyvern
Techies
Techiesyamich
56% · 233 games48% · 132 games
Spirit BreakerQ
Spirit Breaker
Clockwerk
ClockwerkPuppey
52% · 329 games43% · 495 games
RubickOli
Rubick
Game 2prediction correct30:11
Team Secret 50%Talon Esports 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 27:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Magnus
MagnusArmel
47% · 107 games54% · 121 game
Alchemist23savage
Alchemist
Batrider
BatriderFbz
50% · 165 games48% · 298 games
Death ProphetJabz
Death Prophet
Monkey King
Monkey KingCrystallis
48% · 107 games48% · 117 games
Spirit BreakerMikoto
Spirit Breaker
Chen
ChenPuppey
56% · 63 games46% · 36 games
ClinkzQ
Clinkz
Undying
Undyingyamich
51% · 179 games52% · 49 games
Vengeful SpiritOli
Vengeful Spirit
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 52%
Accuracy by game1 of 2