FISSURE PLAYGROUND Belgrade 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretwin 2:1series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Greeceloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Batrideroften banned
Puppey · 9 games
Dragon Knightsignature
423 · 9 games
Dark Willow
Kyzko · 7 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Kyzko · 7 games
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 7 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
423 · 7 games
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Kyzko · 6 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Adzantick · 5 games
Team Greece
Tuskoften banned
SsaSpartan · 2 games
Abaddon
SsaSpartan · 1 game
Beastmasteroften banned
Focus · 1 game
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Focus · 1 game
Dark Willow
dEsire · 1 game
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Focus · 1 game
Drow Rangeroften banned
Madara · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
ThuG · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
482 picks · 658 bans
Clockwerk
443 picks · 514 bans
Pangolier
379 picks · 558 bans
Dark Willow
368 picks · 189 bans
Batrider
341 picks · 377 bans
Luna
323 picks · 428 bans
Muerta
323 picks · 245 bans
Invoker
319 picks · 887 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 40%
Hero pool strength56% Team Secret
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:12
Team Secret 66%Team Greece 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 35:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterParker
MedusaMadara
TerrorbladeMikSa`
Queen of PainThuG
PangolierChira JUNIOR
Centaur WarrunnerFocus
ChenPuppey
MuertadEsire
TuskKyzko
ClockwerkSsaSpartan
Game 2prediction missed32:21
Team Secret 68%Team Greece 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Greece in 41:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightParker
MorphlingMadara
LinaChira JUNIOR
ViperFocus
TidehunterMikSa`
RubickThuG
JakiroPuppey
PhoenixSsaSpartan
HoodwinkKyzko
TuskdEsire
Game 3prediction correct37:12
Team Secret 65%Team Greece 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 33:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm SpiritChira JUNIOR
BloodseekerFocus
SlarkParker
WeaverMadara
PangolierMikSa`
Sand KingThuG
ChenPuppey
BatriderSsaSpartan
TuskKyzko
MagnusdEsire
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 80%
Series resultTeam Secret 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3