ESL One Malaysia 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Secretwin 2:0series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Thunder Awakenloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Chensignature
Puppey · 11 games
Clockwerksignature
Puppey · 11 games
Doomsignature
Zayac · 10 games
Zeussignature
Nisha · 10 games
Timbersawoften banned
iceiceice · 9 games
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 8 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 8 games
Pucksignature
Nisha · 8 games
Thunder Awaken
Snapfiresignature
Sacred · 30 games
Tinysignature
DarkMago · 25 games
Ogre Magisignature
Panda · 22 games
Marssignature
DarkMago · 21 game
Abaddonsignature
Panda · 20 games
Weaversignature
Sacred · 15 games
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 14 games
Timbersawsignature
Sacred · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
718 picks · 537 bans
Puck
509 picks · 1015 bans
Dawnbreaker
446 picks · 561 bans
Marci
422 picks · 752 bans
Snapfire
363 picks · 192 bans
Winter Wyvern
349 picks · 372 bans
Zeus
315 picks · 357 bans
Razor
301 picks · 610 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 52%
Hero pool strength60% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed43:26
Team Secret 36%Thunder Awaken 64%
The model gave 64% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Team Secret in 35:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RazorCrystallis
WeaverPakazs
Void SpiritNisha
MarsDarkMago
BatriderResolut1on
TimbersawSacred
Ogre MagiPuppey
SnapfireMatthew
MarciZayac
Winter WyvernPanda
Game 2prediction missed32:6
Team Secret 38%Thunder Awaken 62%
The model gave 62% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Team Secret in 26:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinCrystallis
AlchemistDarkMago
ViperResolut1on
Chaos KnightPakazs
Void SpiritNisha
WeaverSacred
ChenPuppey
Monkey KingMatthew
MarciZayac
AbaddonPanda
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 69%
Series resultTeam Secret 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2