The International 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Secretwin 2:0series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TSMloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Chensignature
Puppey · 19 games
Razoroften banned
Crystallis · 18 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 16 games
Clockwerksignature
Puppey · 15 games
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 14 games
Tusksignature
Zayac · 14 games
Beastmastersignature
Resolut1on · 11 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Resolut1on · 11 games
TSM
Tiny
bryle- · 14 games
Enchantresssignature
DuBu · 13 games
Puckoften banned
bryle- · 13 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
bryle- · 11 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Timado · 10 games
Chaos Knightsignature
Timado · 9 games
Enigmaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 9 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
MoonMeander · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
506 picks · 389 bans
Marci
443 picks · 678 bans
Death Prophet
301 picks · 462 bans
Puck
286 picks · 691 bans
Dawnbreaker
276 picks · 398 bans
Undying
270 picks · 477 bans
Batrider
248 picks · 855 bans
Chen
248 picks · 512 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 33%
Hero pool strength53% Team Secret
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total65% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:14
Team Secret 58%TSM 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 39:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SniperNisha
Drow RangerTimado
Shadow FiendCrystallis
Queen of Painbryle-
DawnbreakerResolut1on
VisageSabeRLight-
Crystal MaidenPuppey
EarthshakerMoonMeander
Nyx AssassinZayac
ChenDuBu
Game 2prediction correct39:19
Team Secret 60%TSM 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 42:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendNisha
MorphlingTimado
DawnbreakerCrystallis
Sniperbryle-
MiranaResolut1on
BroodmotherSabeRLight-
Crystal MaidenPuppey
Monkey KingMoonMeander
Nyx AssassinZayac
ChenDuBu
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 65%
Series resultTeam Secret 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2