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BetBoom Dacha · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Secretwin 2:0
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TSMloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 20 games
65%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
yamich · 14 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Armel · 14 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Armel · 14 games
36%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Crystallis · 13 games
54%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Puppey · 13 games
46%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 13 games
54%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Armel · 12 games
33%

TSM

Rubick
Rubick
Ari · 45 games
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
kasane · 27 games
52%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 17 games
53%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Timado · 17 games
65%
Lycan
Lycansignature
kasane · 16 games
63%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Whitemon · 14 games
43%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
kasane · 13 games
31%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
bryle- · 13 games
31%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
424 picks · 200 bans
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
331 picks · 495 bans
51%
Techies
Techies
311 picks · 308 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
286 picks · 487 bans
54%
Undying
Undying
286 picks · 475 bans
46%
Morphling
Morphling
285 picks · 546 bans
52%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
258 picks · 628 bans
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
256 picks · 469 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 24%
Hero pool strength51% TSM
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total57% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:17
Team Secret 53%TSM 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 1:08:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinCrystallis
45% · 21 game39% · 73 games
Invokerbryle-
Invoker
Pangolier
PangolierSumaiL
53% · 125 games61% · 10 games
Wraith KingTimado
Wraith King
Brewmaster
BrewmasterFbz
50% · 26 games52% · 85 games
Lycankasane
Lycan
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightPuppey
60% · 37 games44% · 45 games
GrimstrokeAri
Grimstroke
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonyamich
49% · 53 games52% · 49 games
Elder TitanWhitemon
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction correct50:13
Team Secret 56%TSM 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 41:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Earthshaker
EarthshakerSumaiL
59% · 79 games54% · 50 games
Phantom AssassinTimado
Phantom Assassin
Primal Beast
Primal BeastFbz
52% · 126 games44% · 354 games
Ember Spiritbryle-
Ember Spirit
Slark
SlarkCrystallis
60% · 108 games47% · 54 games
Brewmasterkasane
Brewmaster
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetPuppey
45% · 132 games43% · 10 games
Shadow ShamanAri
Shadow Shaman
Invoker
Invokeryamich
48% · 56 games47% · 33 games
WarlockWhitemon
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 57%
Series resultTeam Secret 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2