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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 0:2
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Tusk
Tusksignature
Zayac · 22 games
68%
Chen
Chensignature
Puppey · 20 games
60%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Zayac · 18 games
83%
Marci
Marcisignature
Zayac · 17 games
65%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Resolut1on · 16 games
63%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 16 games
63%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Resolut1on · 15 games
53%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Crystallis · 15 games
47%

Tundra Esports

Tiny
Tinysignature
Saksa · 15 games
73%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Skiter · 13 games
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 13 games
77%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 13 games
77%
Visage
Visagesignature
33 · 12 games
83%
Doom
Doomoften banned
33 · 11 games
55%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Nine · 11 games
82%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
Skiter · 10 games
90%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
369 picks · 346 bans
57%
Tiny
Tiny
334 picks · 334 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
270 picks · 200 bans
60%
Mirana
Mirana
267 picks · 262 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
201 picks · 145 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
185 picks · 106 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
180 picks · 501 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
176 picks · 462 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 75%
Hero pool strength52% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 6
Model total71% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:20
Team Secret 38%Tundra Esports 62%
The model gave 62% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 24:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperBOOM
44% · 80 games55% · 137 games
Beastmaster33
Beastmaster
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightCrystallis
42% · 111 games54% · 25 games
Naga SirenSkiter
Naga Siren
Magnus
MagnusResolut1on
47% · 46 games50% · 80 games
LeshracNine
Leshrac
Enchantress
EnchantressPuppey
45% · 171 game56% · 113 games
RubickSneyking
Rubick
Techies
TechiesZayac
56% · 46 games53% · 99 games
UndyingSaksa
Undying
Game 2prediction correct18:43
Team Secret 37%Tundra Esports 63%
The model gave 63% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 36:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaCrystallis
56% · 138 games52% · 206 games
Queen of PainNine
Queen of Pain
Mars
MarsResolut1on
47% · 208 games49% · 34 games
SpectreSkiter
Spectre
Batrider
BatriderBOOM
49% · 100 games43% · 111 games
Tidehunter33
Tidehunter
Techies
TechiesZayac
42% · 21 game57% · 250 games
MiranaSneyking
Mirana
Tusk
TuskPuppey
48% · 168 games52% · 34 games
RikiSaksa
Riki
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 71%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2