Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 1:2series probability
11%89%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Mirana
Puppey · 9 games
Techies
yamich · 9 games
Tusk
yamich · 9 games
Primal Beastsignature
Armel · 8 games
Pugnaoften banned
yamich · 8 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Armel · 7 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 7 games
Death Prophetsignature
Armel · 6 games
Tundra Esports
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 31 game
Mirana
Sneyking · 31 game
Doomsignature
33 · 28 games
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 25 games
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 23 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Nine · 21 game
Snapfiresignature
Saksa · 21 game
Undyingsignature
Sneyking · 21 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
710 picks · 607 bans
Disruptor
574 picks · 505 bans
Beastmaster
475 picks · 1163 bans
Doom
470 picks · 874 bans
Ember Spirit
424 picks · 1071 bans
Pangolier
406 picks · 861 bans
Enchantress
396 picks · 571 bans
Mirana
396 picks · 216 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 64%
Hero pool strength54% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 5
Model total89% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:16
Team Secret 24%Tundra Esports 76%
The model gave 76% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Secret in 46:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MagnusArmel
TimbersawNine
WindrangerCrystallis
BloodseekerSkiter
NecrophosBOOM
Visage33
Shadow Demonyamich
PhoenixSneyking
MarciPuppey
Vengeful SpiritSaksa
Game 2prediction correct32:33
Team Secret 23%Tundra Esports 77%
The model gave 77% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 1:04:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaCrystallis
SlarkSkiter
Ember SpiritArmel
Queen of PainNine
MiranaPuppey
Beastmaster33
Magnusyamich
Keeper of the LightSaksa
BatriderBOOM
VenomancerSneyking
Game 3prediction correct16:21
Team Secret 26%Tundra Esports 74%
The model gave 74% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 40:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinArmel
SvenSkiter
Monkey KingCrystallis
Doom33
PangolierBOOM
MarciNine
ChenPuppey
Shadow DemonSaksa
Pugnayamich
Witch DoctorSneyking
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 89%
Series resultTundra Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3