DreamLeague Season 20 · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 0:1series probability
13%87%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Tundra Esportswin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Magnusoften banned
Armel · 12 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 12 games
Techiesoften banned
yamich · 12 games
Pugnaoften banned
yamich · 11 games
Mirana
Puppey · 10 games
Tusk
yamich · 9 games
Beastmastersignature
BOOM · 8 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Armel · 8 games
Tundra Esports
Doomsignature
33 · 34 games
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 32 games
Mirana
Sneyking · 32 games
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 30 games
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 23 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Nine · 21 game
Rubick
Sneyking · 21 game
Snapfiresignature
Saksa · 21 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
751 picks · 609 bans
Disruptor
612 picks · 534 bans
Doom
552 picks · 1092 bans
Beastmaster
547 picks · 1328 bans
Techies
478 picks · 538 bans
Pangolier
469 picks · 961 bans
Ember Spirit
466 picks · 1149 bans
Enchantress
450 picks · 644 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 57%
Hero pool strength57% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head2 – 6
Model total87% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:24
Team Secret 27%Tundra Esports 73%
The model gave 73% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 35:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BloodseekerCrystallis
JuggernautSkiter
WindrangerArmel
PuckMalr1ne
PangolierFbz
Batrider33
TechiesPuppey
SilencerSneyking
Shadow Demonyamich
Spirit BreakerImmersion
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 87%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1