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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretwin 2:1
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Virtus.proloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 19 games
68%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 16 games
63%
Razor
Razorsignature
Crystallis · 15 games
60%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
BOOM · 13 games
69%
Tusk
Tusk
yamich · 13 games
46%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 12 games
33%
Rubick
Rubick
Ekki · 11 games
36%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
BOOM · 10 games
40%

Virtus.pro

Tiny
Tinysignature
sayuw · 28 games
71%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Noticed · 23 games
52%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 22 games
68%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Squad1x · 20 games
60%
Batrider
Batridersignature
sayuw · 19 games
63%
Mirana
Mirana
Fng · 19 games
53%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
sayuw · 17 games
59%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Squad1x · 17 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
486 picks · 214 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
445 picks · 626 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
416 picks · 734 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
394 picks · 158 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
392 picks · 552 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
385 picks · 328 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
368 picks · 740 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
338 picks · 550 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)27% vs 49%
Hero pool strength53% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total55% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:12
Team Secret 47%Virtus.pro 53%
The model gave 53% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Team Secret in 33:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaCrystallis
42% · 47 games57% · 175 games
GyrocopterKiritych
Gyrocopter
Pangolier
PangolierBOOM
46% · 264 games52% · 124 games
LeshracSquad1x
Leshrac
Io
IoPuppey
44% · 72 games57% · 183 games
MarsNoticed
Mars
Rubick
RubickThiolicor
54% · 273 games46% · 54 games
MarciAntares
Marci
50% · 120 games
DisruptorFng
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct16:21
Team Secret 46%Virtus.pro 54%
The model gave 54% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 39:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverCrystallis
57% · 101 game42% · 117 games
LifestealerKiritych
Lifestealer
Mars
MarsBOOM
56% · 265 games45% · 39 games
ViperSquad1x
Viper
Clockwerk
ClockwerkPuppey
52% · 126 games49% · 219 games
Centaur WarrunnerNoticed
Centaur Warrunner
Rubick
RubickThiolicor
44% · 306 games52% · 278 games
BatriderAntares
Batrider
51% · 145 games
MiranaFng
Mirana
Game 3prediction missed42:44
Team Secret 48%Virtus.pro 52%
The model gave 52% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Team Secret in 1:29:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawBOOM
52% · 294 games55% · 37 games
Chaos KnightKiritych
Chaos Knight
Lifestealer
LifestealerCrystallis
50% · 192 games44% · 83 games
LinaSquad1x
Lina
Hoodwink
HoodwinkThiolicor
42% · 169 games54% · 207 games
Centaur WarrunnerNoticed
Centaur Warrunner
Disruptor
DisruptorPuppey
53% · 190 games51% · 242 games
BatriderAntares
Batrider
51% · 276 games
RubickFng
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 55%
Series resultTeam Secret 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3