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The International 2025. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretwin 2:1
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Yellow Submarineloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Tiny
Tinysignature
Supream^ · 14 games
64%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
MikSa` · 13 games
77%
Lion
Lionsignature
Thiolicor · 13 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 12 games
50%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Puppey · 11 games
36%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Parker · 10 games
70%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
Thiolicor · 10 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Puppey · 10 games
50%

Yellow Submarine

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
mrls · 9 games
44%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
re1bl · 9 games
56%
Muerta
Muertasignature
mrls · 8 games
63%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
mrls · 6 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
nesfeer · 6 games
33%
Lion
Lion
mrls · 6 games
33%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
ififall · 6 games
33%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Htrd · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
480 picks · 446 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
470 picks · 542 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
442 picks · 221 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
345 picks · 654 bans
46%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
305 picks · 452 bans
54%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
297 picks · 675 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
289 picks · 229 bans
47%
Windranger
Windranger
283 picks · 85 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Team Secret
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:25
Team Secret 71%Yellow Submarine 29%
The model gave 71% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 45:25.
Game 2prediction correct30:8
Team Secret 71%Yellow Submarine 29%
The model gave 71% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 29:58.
Game 3prediction correct3:20
Team Secret 71%Yellow Submarine 29%
The model gave 71% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 23:36.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 71%
Series resultTeam Secret 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3