FISSURE PLAYGROUND Belgrade 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 1:2series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Zero Tenacitywin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Dragon Knightsignature
423 · 10 games
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 10 games
Batrideroften banned
Puppey · 9 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Kyzko · 8 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
423 · 8 games
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Kyzko · 7 games
Dark Willow
Kyzko · 7 games
Ogre Magisignature
Puppey · 6 games
Zero Tenacity
Dark Willow
jAMES · 15 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 15 games
Clockwerkoften banned
LeBronDota · 14 games
Sand Kingsignature
MikSa` · 10 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
MikSa` · 9 games
Ogre Magisignature
LeBronDota · 9 games
Linasignature
Stojkov · 8 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Stojkov · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
487 picks · 651 bans
Clockwerk
451 picks · 519 bans
Pangolier
383 picks · 565 bans
Dark Willow
373 picks · 189 bans
Batrider
348 picks · 383 bans
Muerta
330 picks · 250 bans
Invoker
324 picks · 900 bans
Luna
321 picks · 419 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 58%
Hero pool strength54% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:35
Team Secret 57%Zero Tenacity 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 43:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingParker
GyrocopterDaaD-
Ember SpiritChira JUNIOR
Storm SpiritStojkov
TerrorbladeMikSa`
Primal BeastNefrit
TuskKyzko
LichLeBronDota
BatriderPuppey
MuertaPablo
Game 2prediction correct41:30
Team Secret 56%Zero Tenacity 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 39:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SpectreParker
AlchemistDaaD-
VisageMikSa`
DawnbreakerNefrit
TinyChira JUNIOR
Storm SpiritStojkov
Bounty HunterKyzko
Nyx AssassinPablo
BatriderPuppey
LichLeBronDota
Game 3prediction missed17:34
Team Secret 57%Zero Tenacity 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 27:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember SpiritParker
MorphlingDaaD-
MagnusMikSa`
TerrorbladeNefrit
PangolierChira JUNIOR
TinyStojkov
BatriderPuppey
Nyx AssassinPablo
Bounty HunterKyzko
LichLeBronDota
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 65%
Series resultZero Tenacity 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3